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Between basically 2002 and 2005 lenders started using creative mortgages in ways they’d never been used before. New mortgages were invented and sent to the market that allowed people to borrow for large homes they would normally not be able to afford.

The problem with these loans was they acted like promotional credit cards - they carried a low initial interest rate that would step up to something more normal when the promotional period ended. Unfortunately, consumers borrowed money n0t based on whether they could afford the conventional payment, but whether they could afford the promotional payment.

Fast forward to 2006 and 2007. Interest rates have risen, and these aggressive borrowers are seeing their promotional interest periods end. Their rates are climbing, and worse, they’re variable. That means that in theory their monthly payment could increase every month until they hit their maximum interest rate per the terms of the loan, which could go as high as 15% to 18%. The difference in the monthly mortgage could be hundreds of dollars. That jump in payment would kill almost any family’s budget.

This equation leads to families defaulting on payments, which puts mortgage companies in jeopardy. With lenders in jeopardy, their first move is to severely tighten lending practices. This keeps money out of the economy, and as we’ve seen, kills home sales.

The moral of the story? Both lenders and borrowers will need to be more forward thinking in the future to avoid the type of crisis we’re seeing in the US economy today.

The economy is slowing, and energy prices seem to be poised to go through the roof, but stocks are improving on hopes that an interest rate cut by the Fed will spark economic activity.

Even as oil prices have gone over $93, the DOW average improved nearly fifty points. This can mostly be attributed to widely held expectations that the Fed will cut the right by at least 1/4%. Back in September the Fed cut the rate by .5%. It’s not widely believed that this cut will be as big, but hopes are high that there will be a corresponding spike in lending and spending.

“It’s kind of a psychological sort of move,” Wren said. “A 25 basis-point cut isn’t going to ease the credit crunch. But it’ll give the Fed a little more time to figure out what’s going on with the economy.*”

So said Scot Wren, an equity analyst and strategist for a major US financial firm.

Optimism about the economy isn’t due entirely to the expected drop in interest rates. Several huge companies are also reporting increases in profits in spite of a sluggish economy. That kind of result in the face of generally adverse conditions gives investors hope, and encourages them to buy.

This story illustrates the huge factor human emotion plays in the movement and success of markets. Many of us may think that markets have a mind of their own, and individual outlooks aren’t a big factor. But you have to realize that every person has a perspective and when you aggregate those perspectives what you get is the ebb and flow of markets in general. That’s why in can be so dangerous to follow the crowd in your investing strategy.

It seems that there isn’t as much cause for panic as some would have us believe.

Economists in England are warning that the credit crunch we’re experiencing in the United States is making financial markets around the world vulnerable. You’ve heard the expression “when America sneezes the world catches a cold”? Well the folks at the Bank of England agree with you.

Experts are saying they don’t feel international financial markets are going to be free from worry until the credit situation in the US sorts itself out. Of particular concern is the continued loss of equity in hard assets, such as real estate. That’s a fancy way of saying when the credit market is super tight and demand for property is down, things like your home are going to lose value on paper.

Here’s what I don’t understand - it makes more sense to me that if the equities market is tough in the US the international market would be more desirable to investors. If you can’t make the return on investment you’re looking for in the USA, you take your investing dollars overseas right? I guess not.

Obviously I’ve got more research to do because my views are out of line with what the guys with PhD’s are saying. I’m going to do some more reading about it and get back to you.

Source: bloomberg.com